浙侨英频 ?Economic stability to be focus in 2022

发布时间：2021-12-14

Aerial photo taken on May 26, 2021 shows the Yangpu international container port at Yangpu economic development zone in South China's Hainan province. [PhotoXinhua]

 

Policy fine-tuning likely in energy sector to maintain production, growth

Economic stability will be the top priority of China's policymakers next year, as they are expected to roll out supportive measures ahead of schedule to shore up growth against strong headwinds and will likely set 5 percent as the bottom line for GDP growth for 2022, experts said on Sunday.

Policymakers will intensify fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and increase infrastructure investment and are likely to fine-tune regulatory measures in the energy sector to stabilize production and growth, they said.

China's top leadership acknowledged that the country is facing threefold pressure from contraction of demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations, and it pledged to safeguard economic stability amid rising domestic and external challenges at the tone-setting annual Central Economic Work Conference, which concluded on Friday.

Top policymakers at the meeting decided that supportive policies should be implemented ahead of schedule, and all regions and departments should actively roll out policies conducive to economic stability, according to a statement released after the meeting.

Experts said that the emphasis on economic stability signals that China will pursue a more pro-growth policy to avoid deep economic slowdown, as the world's second-largest economy is likely to face strong downward pressure in the first half of next year before rebounding in the second half.

Most economists agreed that setting a reasonable growth target for next year is important for the government to better anchor the weakened market expectations. Policy support needs to be further intensified, because the Chinese economy may continue to be threatened by weaker growth of consumption and investment, disruptions of the supply chain, resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the negative spillover effect of developed economies exiting their ultra-loose policies, they said.

Zhang Lianqi, a member of the Standing Committee of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, China's top political advisory body, said China may set next year's GDP growth target at around 5.5 percent year-on-year, with 5 percent growth expected to be the bottom line.

Stability will be the top focus of economic policies in 2022, Zhang said.

The key economic meeting also stressed the importance of strengthening policy coordination, sticking with a systemic approach and improving policy effectiveness, which were seen as signs that policymakers will work to avoid any negative effect of its regulatory policies that could weigh on economic growth, experts said.

Han Wenxiu, a senior official with the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, said on Saturday that the government should be cautious about unveiling policies that could trigger economic contraction. The government should also avoid launching policies that are reasonable separately but could have negative effects as a whole, he added.

Wu Chaoming, chief economist at Chasing Securities, said that the country is expected to fine-tune regulations in areas such as the property market and capital expansion in certain sectors to foster well-regulated and healthy development, instead of launching stern regulatory moves that could trigger contractions of economic activities.

It is necessary to prevent industrial regulations from diluting macro policy support and aggravating economic downside risks, Wu said.

Looking forward, a more proactive fiscal policy can be expected as the government will launch additional tax and fee cuts to alleviate financial burdens on smaller enterprises and ensure stable employment. Public spending and the issuance of local government bonds will also be accelerated to boost infrastructure investment, said Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank.

China's monetary policy will maintain a flexible stance to ensure ample liquidity, and additional reduction of banks' reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts remain viable options of the Chinese central bank if the economy further decelerates in the first half of next year, Wen said.

 

【背景阅读】

稳字当头、稳中求进，读懂中央经济工作会议的深意

“明年经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进。”

12月8日至10日召开的中央经济工作会议，亮出2022年经济工作的鲜明基调。

每至岁末召开的中央经济工作会议，总结当年经济工作，把脉当前经济形势，定调来年发展大计，成为中国共产党治国理政的重要制度安排，也是世界读懂中国经济的重要窗口。

2021年中央经济工作会议，是党的十八大以来的第10次中央经济工作会议。习近平总书记在会上发表了重要讲话。

“十四五”实现良好开局后，如何确保中国经济在新征程上行稳致远，此次会议传递出的重要信号备受关注。

“稳”，成为今年中央经济工作会议最突出的关键词。

“着力稳定宏观经济大盘”“保持社会大局稳定”“各地区各部门要担负起稳定宏观经济的责任”“宏观政策要稳健有效”……在不到5000字的消息稿中，“稳”字出现25次。

为何如此强调一个“稳”字？

应对经济下行压力，是首要考虑。

世纪疫情叠加百年变局，外部环境更趋复杂严峻和不确定。需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱——会议在肯定今年我国经济发展取得来之不易成绩的同时，也特别指出当前面临的三重压力。

今年我国经济稳健复苏的同时，增速呈现前高后低，第三季度经济增速“破5”显示经济下行压力加大。考虑到基数效应等多重因素影响，防止经济下行形成惯性、稳定宏观经济大盘，成为做好明年经济工作的重点。

从我国发展阶段来看，“稳”的重要性也不言而喻。

当前，我国国内生产总值跨过百万亿元门槛，人均国内生产总值超过一万美元，正在向高收入国家迈进。这一阶段经济发展的一个特征就是增速放缓，同时经济社会发展中也会面临不少风险挑战，从这个规律上来看，稳定经济尤为关键。

从当前大环境看，也需要“稳”。正如会议指出，明年将召开党的二十大，这是党和国家政治生活中的一件大事，要保持平稳健康的经济环境、国泰民安的社会环境、风清气正的政治环境。

如何确保实现“稳字当头、稳中求进”？

保持战略定力，稳中求进的根本点在于稳定大局、不断进取。

以稳为主基调，在保持大局稳定的前提下谋进。

会议提出七大政策，从宏观、微观、结构、科技、改革开放、区域、社会等方面作出具体部署，以保持宏观经济大局稳定为关键，将稳增长、调结构、推改革有机结合，为稳定大局保驾护航。

位居七大政策之首的是“宏观政策要稳健有效”。“稳健”重在强调政策的连续性、稳定性、可持续性，“有效”则强调政策支撑经济发展要有力度，能更好抵御经济下行压力。这一要求充分体现在了财政政策和货币政策的具体部署中。财政支出强度要保证、支出进度要加快；货币政策保持稳健的同时强调灵活适度，保持流动性合理充裕。

会议强调财政政策和货币政策要协调联动，跨周期和逆周期宏观调控政策要有机结合。这传递出一个重要信号，做好经济工作必须坚持系统观念，遵循经济规律，加强统筹协调，防止顾此失彼。

统筹“稳”和“进”，在相互促进中实现高质量发展。

“坚持稳中求进”是我们党治国理政的重要原则，也是做好经济工作的方法论。

在应对风险挑战的实践中，我们党做好经济工作的规律性认识进一步积累。这次会议十分鲜明提出“四个必须”：必须坚持党中央集中统一领导，必须坚持高质量发展，必须坚持稳中求进，必须加强统筹协调。

聚焦进入新发展阶段后出现的许多新问题，这次会议令人瞩目地提出要正确认识和把握五个重大理论和实践问题，涉及实现共同富裕的战略目标和实践途径、资本的特性和行为规律、初级产品供给保障、防范化解重大风险、碳达峰碳中和等，进行解疑释惑、正本清源。

强调实现共同富裕“是一个长期的历史过程，要稳步朝着这个目标迈进”；提出“要为资本设置‘红绿灯’”“防止资本野蛮生长”；部署“抓好风险处置工作”；明确实现碳达峰碳中和“不可能毕其功于一役”……廓清对这些重大问题的认识，有利于凝聚共识，找准“稳”的关键点和“进”的切入口。

“四个必须”规律性认识和对五个重大问题的深刻阐释，是习近平经济思想的最新成果，为推动高质量发展提供了根本遵循。

经济运行是个动态过程。此次会议传递鲜明的问题导向，强调把握好时度效，不把长期目标短期化，系统目标碎片化，不把持久战打成突击战，为如何实现“稳中求进”指明方向，也对领导干部做好经济工作提出更高要求。

以更全面的“稳”，保障更高质量的“进”，努力实现多重目标的动态平衡，这是摆在我们面前的时代新考卷。

读懂今年中央经济工作会议的深意，把握好“稳中求进”的新内涵，聚精会神、团结奋斗答好明年经济发展考卷，以优异成绩迎接党的二十大胜利召开。

 

来源 新华社