浙侨英频 ?Stable growth top priority for local govts
发布时间：2022-02-11
Photo taken on Jan 14, 2021 shows a night view of Lujiazui in Pudong of East China's Shanghai. [PhotoXinhua]
Provincial-level regions unveiled lists of key investment projects for this year
Keeping economic growth stable remains the top priority for local governments across China in 2022 as they unveiled key plans to boost investment and consumption to cushion new downward pressure. Experts and industry insiders said these measures are likely to contribute to the structural upgrading and high-quality development of the Chinese economy.
Their comments came as eight provincial-level regions, including Beijing, Shanghai and Shandong and Jiangsu provinces, recently unveiled their lists of key investment projects for this year.
According to figures reported by Chinese business newspaper Securities Daily, a total of 6,501 key investment projects are planned with spending on them exceeding 15.6 trillion yuan ($2.45 trillion). A portion of the projects is under this year's local investment plans, and the rest will be proceeded in the coming years.
In terms of areas of investment, apart from conventional ones such as infrastructure and people's livelihoods, investment is being prioritized in advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries. For example, Shandong, whose total GDP ranked third nationally last year, confirmed 600 key investment projects with a growing emphasis on industrial upgrading.
The key investment projects listed by Jiangsu this year involve a total investment of 559 billion yuan, an increase of 6 billion yuan from 2021. Among the 166 key industrial projects, 110 of them are in strategic emerging industries.
The central government said it will front-load supportive measures in the early part of this year to keep the economy running smoothly. Over the past month, a number of localities have called for stepping up the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G facilities and data centers.
Economists said the targets indicate that stable growth remains the top priority for local governments this year, and boosting effective investment will be a key objective, with this investment focusing on high-quality growth and upgrading.
Although local governments aim for expansion in infrastructure investment, this round of investment will be different because it is being rolled out against the backdrop of tightening fiscal regulation. The allocation and oversight mechanism for using funds released from special local government bonds has notably matured, said Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist at Everbright Securities.
Also, infrastructure plans from local governments contain a notable amount of new infrastructure projects and have mapped out intensive investment plans in 5G facilities, the industrial internet and technological upgrading. This will provide solid hardware support for China's industrial upgrading.
By Wednesday, some 30 provincial-level regions had concluded the annual sessions of the legislatures and political advisory bodies, with regional annual economic growth targets set for the year. Most localities have moderated their growth targets for 2022 compared with last year.
The three provinces with the highest economic volume in 2021 – Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong – have all targeted annual growth at around 5.5 percent for this year. Guangdong set its growth target at around 5.5 percent, while Jiangsu and Shandong vowed to reach growth rates above 5.5 percent.
Continuing tax and fee cuts are seen as one of the areas of consensus at the recently concluded annual sessions of provincial-level legislatures and political advisory bodies. Shi Yinghua, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said that this is a signal to the market that governments' efforts to ease the burden on businesses will stay in place. She said tax and fee cuts aim to energize market players and improve their profitability, with a focus on smaller businesses.
【背景阅读】
推动重点项目落地 扩大有效投资 确保一季度和上半年经济平稳运行
2022年1月10日，国务院召开国务院常务会议，部署加快推进“十四五”规划《纲要》和专项规划确定的重大项目，扩大有效投资。
会议指出，贯彻党中央、国务院部署，各相关部门对标对表“十四五”规划《纲要》确定的重点，科学有效做好国家级专项规划编制工作，进一步细化目标任务，提出可操作的政策和具体项目。目前44个专项规划已基本编制完成，陆续印发实施。要立足当前、着眼长远，有力有序推动“十四五”专项规划实施。
加快推进“两重”项目 用好专项债等资金
本次会议强调，要加快推进“十四五”规划《纲要》确定的102项重大工程项目和专项规划重点项目实施。
对此，民生银行研究院宏观分析师王静文对记者表示：“一般说来，5年规划的第二年将是重点项目集中落地的时段，‘十四五’规划《纲要》提出的102项重大工程项目和专项规划重点项目预计将会加快落地。”
落实好重大项目，离不开资金的支持。会议指出，抓紧发行2022年已下达的专项债，用好中央预算内投资，重点安排在建和能够尽快开工的项目，撬动更多社会投资，力争在一季度形成更多实物工作量。
“在2022年一季度形成更多实物工作量有多重积极意义。”招商证券研究发展中心宏观经济分析师张一平对记者表示，一是投资形势边际回稳，有助于托底经济，助力稳增长；二是地方政府和国有企业以实际行动释放明确的刺激投资信号，促进私人部门投资意愿上升；三是投资需求回升有助于改善相关领域就业收入形势，进而间接改善服务业经营环境，对稳就业促消费保服务业市场主体具有积极影响。
对于“抓紧发行2022年已下达的专项债”，业内表示，目前这项工作已经有了积极进展。2021年，专项债发行呈现前低后高态势，2021年12月中旬基本完成了2021年全年的发行计划。根据财政部数据，2021年，全国人大批准安排新增地方政府专项债券额度为3.65万亿元。截至2021年12月15日，新增专项债券发行3.42万亿元，占已下达额度的97%。此外，财政部已向各地提前下达了2022年新增专项债务限额1.46万亿元。
财政部副部长许宏才此前表示：“这次提前下达在额度分配上没有搞‘一刀切’，而是充分考虑了各地项目资金的需求和施工条件，项目资金需求多、施工条件好的地方多分，反之则适当少分。”
把资金用在优质项目上，才能让专项债更好发挥作用。对此，本次会议也强调，要按照资金跟着项目走的要求，将专项债券资金落到具体项目。此前，部分地方存在专项债资金闲置、违规使用等问题。部分地方为抢债券规模而仓促发行，导致项目无法开工，或进度缓慢，或“翻烧饼”式变更，甚至难以实施。“当前，各地正在加强风险管理意识，对于一些‘面子工程’‘政绩工程’要加强问责，确保专项债资金的合理使用。”中国人民大学中国资本市场研究院联席院长赵锡军表示。
把稳增长放在更加突出位置
“2021年上半年专项债发行量较低，一方面是因为经济增速达到预期压力不大，不需要依赖基建投资来发力；另一方面，中央也可以集中力量来推进一些带有攻坚性质的改革，如化解地方政府隐性债务风险等。”王静文表示，现阶段的工作重心则更加强调稳增长。“当前经济下行压力有所加大，需要尽快启动基建来稳投资，进而实现稳增长。在这方面，‘十四五’规划已经做好了相对充分的项目储备。”王静文说。
本次会议指出，当前经济运行处于爬坡过坎的关口。要按照中央经济工作会议要求，把稳增长放在更加突出的位置，坚定实施扩大内需战略，坚持不搞“大水漫灌”，有针对性扩大最终消费和有效投资，这对顶住经济新的下行压力、确保2022年一季度和上半年经济平稳运行具有重要意义。
那么，资金应该投向何处？对此，张一平分析认为，当前全球能源领域的供给冲击持续不断，能源安全风险上升，房地产投资下行压力大，就业压力尤其是农民工就业压力依然存在，以上问题亟待解决，因而需要在能源、保障性住房、城市综合管廊以及传统基建领域如交通、水利等方面，加快项目上马速度。
此外，在张一平看来，稳增长关键是稳就业。他表示：“春节后就业形势可能是2022年第一个稳就业重要节点。当前上马投资项目，政策起效有时滞，加之目前就业压力主要来源于服务业市场主体的经营困境，因此，现阶段应抓紧推出更有针对性的减税降费措施，进一步降低融资成本，通过保市场主体实现保就业，稳定宏观经济大盘。”
王静文则认为，要同时做好扩大最终消费和有效投资。“扩大消费可从三个方面入手。”他认为，首先，要在疫情防控常态化下改善消费环境，包括推动线下服务业正常运营，继续培育和丰富线上消费场景。其次，要做好保就业保民生保市场主体。鉴于2022年就业压力可能会有所上升，必须实施有效政策来保持就业稳定，居民才有持续的收入来源用于消费，这就需要进一步深化助企纾困政策并兜住兜牢民生底线。再次，要不断培育新的消费增长点。在汽车、家具家电、餐饮等大宗重点消费以及线上消费、绿色循环消费等新型消费领域出台新的鼓励措施。
在投资方面，王静文建议适度超前开展基础设施投资，保证财政支出强度，加快支出进度，尽快形成实物工作量。此外，要积极引领产业升级为目标，加大对先进制造业、战略性新兴产业等重点领域的支持力度。
来源金融时报